The Market is Freaking Out - Here’s What’s Really Happening

Right now, the market is full of noise. Conflicting narratives everywhere. Some are calling for a major pullback. Others are bracing for a recession. Bitcoin is dipping, and sentiment is turning increasingly bearish.

But let’s cut through the noise and get to the reality of what’s actually happening.

Everything we are seeing, especially in crypto, is a lagging effect of the financial tightening from Q4 last year.

When liquidity tightens, economic surprises slow down, and uncertainty creeps in. That is exactly why we are seeing weak economic data and why recession talk is suddenly making a comeback.

But here is the important part:

This will all reverse next month.

Financial conditions have already been easing for the last two months—dollar down, bond yields down, oil down. These are the signals that always lead the market.

And Bitcoin? It has already priced this in.

The drop to $80K was the market digesting all of this. Could we go a little lower? Sure. But at this point, everyone is already on the same side of the trade. Sentiment is extremely bearish, and Bitcoin’s RSI has hit 23, the most oversold level since August 2023.

So if you are still bearish, be careful.

This is when smart money starts getting greedy.

History Repeats Itself: 2017 All Over Again

This setup? We have seen it before.

In 2017, Bitcoin had five separate pullbacks of over 28% before hitting new highs.

Each pullback lasted two to three months. Alts saw 65% corrections.

And then? It all ripped higher.

All of it was just noise.

So if you find yourself glued to the charts, obsessing over every move, go do something else. Step back. Zoom out. The bigger picture remains unchanged.

Bitcoin is in a multi-year adoption cycle. Institutions are buying. Sovereign wealth funds are buying. Pensions are buying.

This is happening. Are you paying attention?

See you next week.

B. Xx