Big Week in Crypto—Cycles, Volatility, and the Bigger Picture

Good morning friend,

This has been a big week in crypto, packed with noise, volatility, and some key signals about where we are headed next.

It all kicked off last Sunday with Donald Trump posting about making crypto the centre of the financial world. That sent the market pumping, Bitcoin spiked, and the sentiment flipped bullish. For a moment, it felt like we were entering a new phase.

Then, Monday wiped out all of those gains. Just as fast as it came, it went. It was like the Trump rally never happened.

But since then, we have seen a consolidation and a gradual increase, which suggests we have now completed the 60-day cycle and entered a new one. If this pattern holds, this cycle, leading into April, should see a steady increase, ideally pushing Bitcoin back toward $100K to $110K.

I am not expecting a major all-time high in this cycle. Not yet. But the macro conditions are lining up for a strong Q2 and H2 of 2025.

The biggest factor right now? Uncertainty.

• Trump's tariff announcements and a potential trade war are shaking up global markets.

• The S&P 500 took a major hit—a signal that its previous cycle may have topped and could now be entering a decline.

• The Nasdaq lost value as well, showing that tech stocks are not immune to this turbulence.

This looks like a deliberate restructuring of the markets under Trump’s presidency. The question is: how does this impact Bitcoin?

Historically, gold and silver are seen as hedges against volatility, but Bitcoin has not yet proven itself as a consistent safe-haven asset. While some believe Bitcoin is decoupling from equities, I do not think we are quite there yet.

At least not yet.

Eventually, when Bitcoin is more embedded at a state level, I believe we will see it behave more like gold—a true hedge against market instability. But right now? Bitcoin is still susceptible to volatility in traditional finance and will likely get pulled into the turbulence.

That being said, the four-year cycle is still in play.

• Liquidity is increasing.

• The dollar is dropping.

• ISM (Institute for Supply Management) is going up.

Historically, when liquidity increases, Bitcoin follows—but there is always a lag.

So the hope for this cycle? A sideways movement, a gradual increase, and by April, Bitcoin pushing close to its all-time highs again. By then, we should see liquidity expansion at a global level, major markets adjusting to new tariffs, and potentially more aggressive monetary easing from central banks.

Still very bullish for a strong Q2 and H2.

Now, let’s get into this week’s core events.

Core Events Shaping Crypto Right Now

1. Trump's Executive Order Establishes U.S. Bitcoin Strategic Reserve

On March 7, 2025, President Donald Trump signed an executive order to create a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. This reserve will be funded using bitcoin seized in criminal and civil cases, ensuring no cost to taxpayers. The initiative aims to strengthen the nation's position in the rapidly evolving digital asset landscape.

What to watch:

• How will this impact regulation?

• Will we see clearer frameworks for institutional crypto adoption?

• How will this affect global positioning, given that China and the EU are already moving on CBDCs and digital asset strategies?

This summit could be the biggest government-driven catalyst for Bitcoin adoption we have seen so far.

2. Bitcoin’s Wild Market Moves
Bitcoin hit $94K, then dropped back to $83K, proving once again that volatility is king in this space.

The sentiment is still extremely bearish, which historically means we are in a prime position for an upside reversal. Bitcoin’s RSI has dropped to its lowest levels since August 2023, signaling oversold conditions.

Everyone is on the same side of the trade—so if you are still bearish, be careful.

3. Big Banks Are Getting Deeper Into Crypto
BNY Mellon, Citi, and State Street have announced new plans to offer crypto custody services. This is not just a small test phase—these are real institutional plays to integrate Bitcoin into their systems.

For years, these banks ignored or fought against crypto. Now they are setting up infrastructure to hold Bitcoin for their clients. That tells you everything you need to know.

Bitcoin is being legitimized at the highest levels.

4. The Largest Crypto Heist in History
This week, North Korean hackers pulled off a massive $1.5 billion heist, according to the FBI.

This is a major wake-up call for security in the space. While institutions are adopting Bitcoin, we still need stronger protection against state-sponsored attacks.

But understand this was more a scam than anything else. The crooks persuaded people to supply their details. It wasn’t a ‘hack’ as such. Adds perspective on the situation.

The Big Picture

Crypto is not slowing down.

Even with volatility, market turbulence, and uncertainty, we are seeing:

✅ Nation-states accumulating Bitcoin.
✅ Institutions increasing exposure.
✅ The biggest banks in the world preparing to hold Bitcoin.
✅ A potential U.S. Crypto Reserve being discussed at the White House.

The question is not if Bitcoin will continue its adoption curve—the question is how fast this accelerates.

See you next week.

B.